{"id":6436,"date":"2022-05-21T14:23:04","date_gmt":"2022-05-21T05:23:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hatsudy.com\/jp\/?p=6436"},"modified":"2022-05-26T01:52:24","modified_gmt":"2022-05-25T16:52:24","slug":"conjugate-prior","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hatsudy.com\/jp\/conjugate-prior.html","title":{"rendered":"\u5171\u5f79\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\uff1a\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u63a8\u5b9a\u3067\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u540c\u3058\u306b\u3059\u308b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u63a8\u5b9a\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3068\u304d\u3001\u5fc5\u305a\u5229\u7528\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u3068\u304d\u3001\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u7a2e\u985e\u304c\u4e00\u81f4\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u8a08\u7b97\u304c\u7c21\u5358\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u90fd\u5408\u304c\u3088\u3044\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u3046\u3057\u305f\u3068\u304d\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u63a8\u5b9a\u3067\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u3092\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u3057\u3066\u304f\u308c\u308b\u306e\u304c\u5171\u5f79\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u3059\u3002\u9023\u7d9a\u78ba\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u53d6\u308a\u6271\u3046\u3068\u304d\u3001\u5171\u5f79\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3059\u308b\u3068\u4fbf\u5229\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5171\u5f79\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u4f7f\u3048\u3070\u3001\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u7a2e\u985e\u304c\u540c\u3058\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6027\u8cea\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5171\u5f79\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u306f\u4f55\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306b\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u7a2e\u985e\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3066\u672a\u6765\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3068\u304d\u3001\u5171\u5f79\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u8a08\u7b97\u306a\u3057\u306b\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u63a8\u5b9a\u3067\u306f\u5c24\u5ea6\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3001\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u5f97\u308b<\/h2>\n<p>\u5171\u5f79\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u5b9a\u7406\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u3092\u5fa9\u7fd2\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u3067\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u3068\u304d\u3001\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u5c24\u5ea6\uff08\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u78ba\u7387\uff09\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/span>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u304c\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u63a8\u5b9a\u3067\u5229\u7528\u3055\u308c\u308b\u516c\u5f0f\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/hatsudy.com\/jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/fjr2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"431\" height=\"140\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6460\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4f55\u304b\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u5909\u5316\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u304b\u3089\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u3078\u3068\u5909\u5316\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u306e\u30ab\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u5f15\u304f\u3068\u304d\u3001\u7d75\u672d\u3092\u5f15\u304f\u3068\u6b63\u89e3\u3068\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u300c\u30ab\u30fc\u30c9\u304c\u7d75\u672d\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\\(P(A)\\)\u300d\u300c\u30ab\u30fc\u30c9\u304c3\u306e\u500d\u6570\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\\(P(B)\\)\u300d\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u30664\u3064\u306b\u5206\u3051\u308b\u3068\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/hatsudy.com\/jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/jfh6.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"499\" height=\"307\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6336\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u30ab\u30fc\u30c9\u304c\u7d75\u672d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f\\(\\displaystyle\\frac{3}{13}\\)\u3067\u3059\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3042\u306a\u305f\u304c\u30ab\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u5f15\u3044\u305f\u5f8c\u3001\u53f8\u4f1a\u8005\u306f\u300c\u3042\u306a\u305f\u304c\u5f15\u3044\u305f\u30ab\u30fc\u30c9\u306f3\u306e\u500d\u6570\u3067\u3059\u300d\u3068\u6559\u3048\u3066\u304f\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3046\u3057\u3066\u6761\u4ef6\u304c\u5909\u5316\u3057\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u300c\u30ab\u30fc\u30c9\u304c3\u306e\u500d\u6570\u306e\u3046\u3061\u3001\u7d75\u672d\u3092\u5f15\u304f\u78ba\u7387\\(P(A|B)\\)\u300d\u3067\u3042\u308b\\(\\displaystyle\\frac{1}{4}\\)\u3078\u5909\u5316\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u767a\u751f\u5f8c\u306b\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3053\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/hatsudy.com\/jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/fjr3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"499\" height=\"307\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6461\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u524d\u78ba\u7387\uff08\u7d75\u672d\u3092\u5f15\u304f\u78ba\u7387\\(P(A)\\))\u306f\\(\\displaystyle\\frac{3}{13}\\)\u3067\u3059\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u5c24\u5ea6\uff08\u7d75\u672d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u30013\u306e\u500d\u6570\u3092\u5f15\u304f\u78ba\u7387\\(P(B|A)\\)\uff09\u306f\\(\\displaystyle\\frac{1}{3}\\)\u3067\u3059\u30023\u306e\u500d\u6570\u3092\u5f15\u304f\u78ba\u7387\\(P(B)\\)\u306f\\(\\displaystyle\\frac{4}{13}\\)\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u5148\u307b\u3069\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u306b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081\u308b\u3068\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\\(\\displaystyle\\frac{\\displaystyle\\frac{1}{3}\u00d7\\displaystyle\\frac{3}{13}}{\\displaystyle\\frac{4}{13}}=\\displaystyle\\frac{1}{4}\\)<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3046\u3057\u3066\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u5b9a\u7406\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3082\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5171\u5f79\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001\u3053\u3046\u3057\u305f\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u63a8\u5b9a\u306e\u5185\u5bb9\u3092\u628a\u63e1\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304f\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u306a\u304a\u308f\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3001\u660e\u78ba\u306a\u78ba\u7387\uff08\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u5024\uff09\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3066\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u3067\u78ba\u7387\u5bc6\u5ea6\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3001\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u5024\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\\(x\\)\u306a\u3069\u306e\u6587\u5b57\u304c\u5165\u3063\u305f\u6570\u5f0f\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3066\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u304c\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u3078\u3068\u5909\u5316\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3044\u305a\u308c\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u63a8\u5b9a\u3067\u306f\u4f55\u304b\u3057\u3089\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u304b\u3089\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u3078\u3068\u5909\u5316\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u304c\u540c\u3058\u306b\u306a\u308b\u5171\u5f79\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u306f<\/h3>\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5148\u307b\u3069\u306e\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u306e\u4f8b\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u4e8b\u524d\u78ba\u7387\u304b\u3089\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u3078\u5909\u5316\u3059\u308b\u3068\u304d\u3001\u7279\u306b\u9055\u548c\u611f\u306f\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u7406\u7531\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u4e8b\u524d\u78ba\u7387\u3068\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u5206\u5e03\u304c\u540c\u3058\u3060\u304b\u3089\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u306f\u30011\uff5e13\u306e\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u30ab\u30fc\u30c9\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u78ba\u7387\u306f\\(\\displaystyle\\frac{1}{13}\\)\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u540c\u3058\u5834\u5408\u3001\u4e00\u69d8\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u3044\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/hatsudy.com\/jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/fjr4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"307\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6462\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u3069\u3046\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u30673\u306e\u500d\u6570\u306f3\u30016\u30019\u300112\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u30ab\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u3046\u3061\u3001\u5f15\u304f\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\\(\\displaystyle\\frac{1}{4}\\)\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u5148\u307b\u3069\u3068\u540c\u3058\u4e00\u69d8\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u63a8\u5b9a\u3067\u306f\u5fc5\u305a\u5c24\u5ea6\u3092\u304b\u3051\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u3068\u304d<span style=\"color: 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loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/hatsudy.com\/jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/fjr5.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"210\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6463\" 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